Bottorff 3 models of Zika

1.      Structural model (hierarchical)

2.      Causal/functional model (problem centered analysis)

3.      Behavioral (agent) model

a.      Mosquito

                                                    i.     Number

                                                   ii.     Acquisition of Zika

1.      Initially

2.      On contact with infected human (only female mosquitos)

b.      Human

                                                    i.     Number

                                                   ii.     Zika

1.      Susceptibility (%), includes health factors and age

2.      Symptoms and % mortality

3.      Sexual transmission (% chance and % occurrence on contact)

                                                  iii.     Spread

1.      Flight

2.      Boat travel

c.      Predators of mosquitos

                                                    i.     Number

                                                   ii.     Speed

                                                  iii.     Eat mosquitos on contact

                                                  iv.     Affected by mosquitos carrying Zika?

d.      Prey of mosquitos

                                                    i.     Number

                                                   ii.     Speed

                                                  iii.     Eaten by mosquitos on contact